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Fail Safe Investment Strategy for an Obama Presidency
By Charles L. Stanley CFP ChFC AIF | February 8, 2009
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Whether you are an Obama fan or an Obama opponent, since he has become our newest President of the United States his policies will have an affect on the financial markets, both domestically and internationally. He wants to bring change to the United States which by extension means world markets because we have such a huge economic foot print.
With Barak Obama as President and the most powerful leader in the world, how should you structure your investment portfolio - both your taxable portfolio and your 401(k) or IRA, etc.?
1. Taxes Matter: We don’t yet know the details of how he will handle taxes on dividend income and capital gains. It is clear that at least some of the investing population will see an increase in taxes on those forms of investment returns. If you pay a 20% rate on capital gains that means you will have 20% less money being reinvested to grow and get the affect of compounding. Dividend rates could go up as high as 35% and that will really kill the benefit of dividend paying stocks. So, one can use tax free bonds for at least a portion of the fixed income portion of a portfolio. Second, you should make sure you are having your investment advisor use tax management in the investment and management of your portfolio. Tax managed passive mutual funds have an extremely low tax impact.
2. Don’t fight the Capital Markets, they work: Most of the Wall Street types fight the capital markets thinking they can beat the market. The do this by some form of stock picking and/or market timing. Unfortunately for them (and their investor clients) all the academic research says the markets are essentially efficient and you simply can’t beat the market with consistency. You are better off not trying to outperform and investing to always get the market return. I know that sounds a little scary right now, but the data are showing that this passive approach (with asset class funds and index funds) is in fact outperforming the majority of active managers even in this really tough market.
3. Remove uncertainty by Diversification: Risk is really the uncertainty of future outcomes when investing. Diversification will reduce the uncertainty of a given portfolio. Lets assume you have a fund with 3500 stocks in it. A couple of those happen to be Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. With that many companies in your portfolio, you will hardly notice it as those two companies go out of existence. On the other hand, if you have a mutual fund of only financial companies, you will feel it big time. See what I mean? You can reduce the risk of uncertainty through very broad diversification.
4. You can’t separate Return from Risk: This is the principal that everyone wishes weren’t true. But, it is. Over time, stocks outperform bonds. Over time, bonds outperform cash. But this isn’t true at all times, just over time. In 2008, cash outperformed stocks. But, over any extended time period, stocks outperform cash and bonds. Stocks are also more volatile. You can’t separate this kind of higher risk and higher return. Small stocks outperform large stocks. Value stocks outperform Growth stocks, not always, but over time.
5. Portfolio Performance is determined by Portfolio Structure: Asset allocation (choosing how much of a portfolio to commit to what asset class) along equity market exposure, value and size dimensions primarily determine the performance over time of a broadly diversified portfolio. Stated another way, under an Obama Presidency - or any Presidency for that matter - own low cost, globally diversified asset class mutual funds that are more heavily weighted to smaller and more value oriented stocks. You are exposing yourself to higher performing asset classes but are protecting yourself from uncertainty through broad diversification. If an all stock portfolio is too volatile for you, add some short term high quality bonds to reduce the volatility. Of course, it will also reduce your expected return.
In order to win the loser’s game, follow academically sound investment principles will allow you to win during an Obama Presidency. Don’t give in to the Wall Street marketing gurus who have proven just how effective they are at separating you from your money, quickly and permanently. Can anybody say, Bernie Madoff?
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Topics: Wealth management |